Are we missing the problem?

The problem isn’t Donald Trump. The problem wasn’t Barack Obama or George Bush. Our problem today isn’t divisiveness, white nationalism, or economic inequality. The problem is poor leadership, and the problem lying behind this is the process we use to choose our leaders.

Have you noticed that Donald Trump is no George Washington? Did you notice that Barack Obama was not up to the standard of John Adams? Do you think Bush #43 could go head-to-head with Thomas Jefferson?

The population of the 13 colonies in 1775 was 2.4 million. The current US population is 329 million. Our population today is 137 times larger than in 1775. We have a much larger talent pool from which we select our leaders. So why are things going downhill?

Compare the quality of our political leadership then, and now. Think of the literary and political genius behind the Declaration of Independence and our Constitution. Think of the military brilliance that won our independence, and the political brilliance needed to preserve it in the years from independence through the War of 1812. Compare that to the quality of our leadership over the previous four or five presidential administrations.

The difference between then and now is subjective, but I can leverage someone else’s work to put a number on it. Find a ranking of all the US presidents through Obama, then compare the rankings for the first five and the most recent five. A ranking is available here courtesy of politico.com, and below I show their rankings for the first five presidents and last (most recent) five presidents:

The first five

• George Washington, 2
• John Adams, 19
• Thomas Jefferson, 7
• James Madison 17
• James Monroe 13

The last five

• Ronald Reagan 9
• George H.W. Bush, 20
• Bill Clinton, 15
• George W. Bush 33
• Barack Obama 12

Add the rankings. The rankings of the first five sums to 58, the most recent five sum to 89. Yes it’s silly…so do your own comparison. How much better do you think that first group was, compared to what we have now? In summary, with a much smaller population back then, we found much better political leaders.

Why? I don’t care. How do we fix it? I surveyed the Web and as you might expect there’s lots of whining about the problem but fairly little on offer for solutions.

The academic business journal Harvard Business Review offers some non-specific and pretty tame suggestions. The Huffington Post and Atlantic magazine both offered some general and pretty partisan suggestions.

Back in 1991 DePauw University sponsored a conference focusing on political competitiveness that ended by offering ten specific suggestions for reform of the political process. My guess is that numbers 6, 7, and 10 would require amendments to the Constitution, making them non-starters, but good ideas regardless.

In 2014 the Bipartisan Policy Center, a think tank, published their own list of “10 key ideas to fix the electoral process, return Congress to legislating and enhance public service”. This list shows more familiarity with the ins and outs of the US government, and I like it the most of the ones I found.

The one suggestion I’ll offer in addition is to change the candidate debates. The current format is like a competitive press conference. It’s too easy for candidates to skate through without being challenged. Too little substantive argument. Not revealing at all. I’d like to see something more like an actual debate, either Oxford-style debating; or something like the Lincoln-Douglas debates.

Bottom Line
We have strong institutions but that’s not enough to replace bad leadership. Look at the current campaign and tell me we’ll get good leadership from ANY of the top five current candidates (Trump, Biden, Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg).
We’re in trouble. I assume the leaders are out there, so if we’re not finding them we’re doing something wrong. The process should be changed to find and put forward the best leaders available in a population 137 times larger than in 1775.